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SES 2.3: Manufacturing Operations, Supply Chain and Logistics
1:50pm - 3:10pm
Session Chair: Cristovao Silva
Location:Aula O (first floor)
50. Applying Looks-Like Analysis and Bass Diffusion Model Techniques to Forecast a Neurostimulator Device with No Historical Data
Farnaz Ganjeizadeh, Howard Lei, Preetpal Goraya, Erik Olivar
CSUeastbay.edu, United States of America
This work utilizes looks-like analysis and the Bass diffusion model to generate sales forecasts of a responsive neurostimulation (RNS) system. Due to the lack of historical data, a combination of techniques is utilized to predict the device’s demand. Looks-like analysis is used to analyse analogous devices and their sales patterns to select the device closest to the RNS system. Next, parameters for the Bass diffusion model are estimated, and potential baseline forecasts are developed using two methods. Results suggest that peak sales for the device will occur around years 2021-2024.
9. Assessment of air cargo airlines: An interpretive structural modeling approach
Aman Gupta, Robert Walton
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, United States of America
All-cargo airlines carry about 50% of the global airfreight, with most of the rest carried as belly freight on passenger aircraft. There are many financial models designed to predict the financial health of a firm, but they do not assess many nonstatistical factors that may influence the models. Using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) methodology this study will explore the nonstatistical factors that might affect a firm. ISM allows a better understanding of the mutual influence among different attributes and the consequences which helps the decision maker make more informed decisions. The researcher will be using ISM methodology to summarize and identify the relationships among attributes that impact the competitive advantage of a cargo airline, operational factors that might influence the firm’s processes and characteristics that might affect the overall financial stability of the airline. Relationships among attributes will be derived and structured into a hierarchy in order to derive subsystems of interdependent elements with corresponding driving power and dependency.
7. Improving Road Transport Operations using Lean Thinking
Jose Arturo Garza-Reyes1, Juan Sebastian Beltran Forero2, Vikas Kumar3, Bernardo Villarreal4, Miguel Gaston Cedillo-Campos5, Luis Rocha-Lona6
1University of Derby, United Kingdom; 2Warwick Manufacturing Group, The University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK; 3Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol, BS16 1QY, UK; 4Departamento de Ingenieria, Universidad de Monterrey, San Pedro Garza Garcia, 66238, México; 5National Laboratory for Transportation Systems and Logistics, Mexican Institute of Transportation, Querétaro, 76703, México; 6Instituto Politécnico Nacional, ESCA Santo Tomás, Mexico City, 11340, México
Purpose – Despite the large number of successful examples of companies that have implemented lean thinking in their processes, it is still challenging to find organisations which have adopted lean thinking in their transport operations. The main reason is because transport operations have been considered as a wasteful activity in the literature during the last decades, and hence managers do not spend time and resources in wasteful activities. Nevertheless, the importance of transport operations has nowadays been widely recognised in a variety of industrial sectors and to support the economic development of nations. However, few investigations have applied lean thinking in transport operations as a potential improvement strategy. The aim of this research is therefore to document a case study where the transport operations of one of the leading providers of paper-based packaging solutions in the world, based in Bogota, Colombia, were identified, measured and improved using lean concepts, methods and tools.
Design/methodology/approach – The research is considered an exploratory and analytical case study that took place in the transport process of one of the leading providers of paper-based packaging solutions in the world located in Bogota, Colombia. The study measured and analysed the performance of the transport operations using lean tools and techniques with the purpose of finding improvement opportunities. The methodology of the research was divided into 4 steps: (1) direct observations of the entire transport operation; (2) collection and analysis of the data; (3) creation of a Transportation Value Stream Mapping (TVSM) of the process, (4) measurement of the Transportation Overall Vehicle Effectiveness (TOVE); and (5) proposal of recommendations and possible solutions to improve the process.
Findings – The TVSM identified six wastes in the transport operations of the case organisation, namely: waiting, resource utilisation, excess movement, over-production, over-processing and behavioural. On the other hand, with the development of twelve indicators, the TOVE measure resulted in an efficiency of 54%. Thus, the study identified and proposed improvement opportunities based on the results of the TVSM and TOVE.
Research limitations – Lean thinking is a powerful philosophy that needs time for its development and full adoption in any process. Thus, the research took five direct observations that described how the process works, however, the study can be more accurate with more data information and more time to develop the techniques. Nevertheless, the case company recognised the positive impacts of the research and it can hence continue the project with more detail.
Practical implications – This study is one of the few investigations which have explored the use of lean thinking with the purpose of improving transport operations. Thus, it has positive impacts for subsequent studies within the field. In addition, this research provided strong tools and techniques to the case organisation in order to increase and improve the performance of its transport operations. Managers can apply the concepts developed in the research and create a culture of continuous improvement in this area.