Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 08:51:23am CEST
|
Daily Overview |
| Session | |
|
FI 11: Illiquidity and Investor Behavior Location: LR M0.2 (Floor 0) Session Chair: Per J Strömberg, Stockholm School of Economics | |
| Presentation 1 | |
ID: 944
When Cash Flows Turn Negative: Liquidity-Driven Selling by Pension Funds 1: University of Amsterdam; 2: University of Southern California; 3: Stanford GSB and Hoover Institution U.S. public pension funds are long-horizon investors with predictable liability structures. As such, they are often perceived as contrarian investors who can absorb supply shocks and stabilize markets. However, they increasingly face negative net operating cash flows as benefit payments exceed contributions. Using aggregate pension fund data combined with granular holdings obtained through public records requests, we document three findings that challenge the conventional view of U.S. pension funds as stabilizing investors. First, pension funds with more negative cash flows do not incorporate this factor into their target asset allocation and maintain low allocation to safer or more liquid assets. Second, because of these limited liquidity buffers, pension funds meet cash flow shocks primarily by selling equities rather than drawing on liquid assets. Pension funds absorb $0.67 per dollar of shock through equity sales. At the security level, pension funds sell across equities and do not follow a liquid-assets-first approach. Third, these equity sales occur even during periods of negative equity returns, indicating they are driven by cash flow needs rather than portfolio rebalancing considerations. Together, these findings show that pension funds have become regular sellers in equity markets rather than contrarian, stabilizing investors.
| |
