Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 12:50:32pm CEST
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Daily Overview |
| Session | |
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HF 04: Household Wealth Location: LR N0.5 (Floor 0) Session Chair: Roine Vestman, Stockholm University | |
| Presentation 3 | |
ID: 847
Interest Rate Pass-Through With Adjustable Rate Mortgages 1: Fuqua School of Business at Duke, CEPR, and NBER; 2: Nova School of Business and Economics, ECGI and CEPR; 3: The University of Hong Kong and Banco de Portugal Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) transmit monetary policy less directly than often assumed. We exploit quasi-experimental variation in ARM rate reset timing in Portugal---where over 92% of mortgages are indexed to Euribor---around the ECB’s 2022–2023 tightening cycle to estimate responses to mortgage payment shocks. After reset dates, mortgage renegotiations increase by 10 percentage points, lender switching by 4, partial prepayments by 5, and full prepayments by 3, offsetting about 17% of the payment increase implied by policy rates. Responses occur only immediately after resets, consistent with selective inattention, and are largest among younger, more educated, and higher-balance borrowers. Supply-side factors amplify these effects: as rates rise and bank competition intensifies, households at more flexible banks renegotiate, switch lenders, and prepay more, while greater broker presence further increases lender switching. Our findings suggest that monetary policy pass-through in ARM-dominated markets depends on borrower behavior, market frictions, and sticky deposit rates.
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