Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 08:43:05am CEST
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Daily Overview |
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CF 14: Private Capital Markets Location: Chapel (Floor 1) Session Chair: Constantine Yannelis, University of Cambridge | |
| Presentation 2 | |
ID: 585
Tax Avoidance Costs and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Offshore Data Leaks 1: Paris Dauphine - PSL, France; 2: Universitat Pompeu Fabra We study whether increases in the cost of tax avoidance affect corporate investment. Tax avoidance can raise investment not only by lowering effective tax rates, but also by preserving internal funds that firms can use when external finance is costly. Identifying this channel is difficult because tax reforms typically change both statutory tax rates and incentives to avoid taxes. We exploit offshore data leaks as firm-specific shocks to the cost of avoidance that do not change statutory tax rates. We link the ICIJ Offshore Leaks Database to Orbis Europe and identify exposed private firms across 12 European countries. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that exposed firms reduce investment after the leaks. The decline is concentrated among firms for which internal funds are likely to have high shadow value: smaller firms, younger firms, firms without prior long-term debt relationships, and lower-productivity firms. Exposed firms also experience deteriorating operating cash flows and pre-tax profits. We find no evidence that the effects are driven by product-market penalties or credit supply shocks. The evidence shows that increases in avoidance costs can reduce real investment by tightening firms’ internal financing capacity, even when statutory tax rates and credit conditions do not change.
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