Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 12:50:53pm CEST
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Daily Overview |
| Session | |
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AP 15: Asset Prices, News, and Beliefs Location: LR M2.2 (Floor 2) Session Chair: Michael Halling, University of Luxembourg | |
| Presentation 3 | |
ID: 531
Inflation Surges and the Market Reaction to Inflation News Federal Reserve Board, United States of America I document a large increase in intraday market reactions to Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcements during the 2021--23 inflation surge. Asset prices across markets---including equities, interest rates, and inflation swap rates---respond significantly more strongly to CPI surprises than in the preceding low-inflation period. At the same time, reactions to other macroeconomic announcements remain comparatively unchanged. Overall, the market volatility attributable to macro announcements---driven by the CPI release---rises during the inflation surge. The patterns are likely not unique to 2021--23: historical evidence points to a stronger sensitivity to CPI surprises in earlier high-inflation episodes. Inspecting the mechanism, I find that the prevailing inflation level robustly predicts stronger CPI reactions and is closely linked to a proxy for ex-ante investor attention, which likewise amplifies market responses. Through the lens of a standard investor learning model, the increased market reaction to inflation news can help explain a substantial share of the heightened stock market volatility during inflation surges.
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