Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 08:43:39am CEST
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Daily Overview |
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AP 02: Machine Learning Methods in Portfolio Management and Fund Behavior Location: LR M2.2 (Floor 2) Session Chair: Andy Neuhierl, Purdue University | |
| Presentation 1 | |
ID: 490
Machine Learning Mutual Fund Flows 1: Lucerne University of Applied Sciences & Arts; 2: University of Mannheim; 3: University of Neuchâtel; 4: Technical University of Munich We present improved out-of-sample predictability of future fund flows using state-of-the-art machine learning methods. Nonlinear machine learning models significantly outperform linear models in terms of out-of-sample R-squared. Using interpretable ML methods, we identify past flows and the Morningstar rating as the most important predictors for netflows, while other past performance variables are of minor importance. We find that the importance of Morningstar ratings and expenses has increased over time. In addition, the interaction effect of past flows with the Morningstar rating has a substantial impact on future flows. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that machine learning-based fund flow predictions can be used to ex-ante differentiate between high and low-performing mutual funds. Finally, we provide evidence that funds whose flow predictions can be improved the most using ML reveal the worst performance, consistent with the idea that liquidity management is particularly challenging for these funds.
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