Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 08:43:04am CEST
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Daily Overview |
| Session | |
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NBIM: Understanding the Long-run Drivers of Asset Prices Location: LR M2.1 (Floor 2) Session Chair: Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen, BI Norwegian Business School | |
| Presentation 1 | |
ID: 395
The Pricing of Geopolitical Tensions over a Century The Ohio State University We study capital allocation and asset pricing consequences of geopolitical tensions using nearly 100 years of data. Leveraging widely adopted news-based geopolitical risk indices, we find that geopolitical threats (GPT) and acts (GPA) have markedly different implications. GPT closely tracks geopolitical risk perceptions and capital allocation decisions of investors and firms, is priced across different asset cross-sections, and predicts country-level equity premia. By contrast, GPA has weaker and less stable links to beliefs, capital allocation, and risk premia. These results are incremental to existing news-based measures of macro-financial uncertainty, including indices capturing war-related discourse and economic and trade policy risk.
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