Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 12:50:54pm CEST
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Daily Overview |
| Session | |
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HF 01: Household Debt Location: LR N0.5 (Floor 0) Session Chair: Francisco Gomes, London Business School | |
| Presentation 1 | |
ID: 272
Unlocking Mortgage Lock-In: Equilibrium Effects in a Spatial Housing Ladder Model 1: UIUC Gies, USA; 2: Wharton, USA; 3: INSEAD, France Mortgage borrowers are "locked in": forgoing moves to keep low rates. We show missing downsizers stay in larger homes, raising net demand. We design a spatial housing ladder model with long-term mortgages, generating a distribution of locked-in rates and causal mobility effects consistent with the data. A temporary rate hike causes lock-in, increasing house prices by 4.4% and rents by 1.4% relative to a counterfactual without lock-in, offsetting a third of the house-price decline caused by higher rates. A starter-home seller subsidy modestly increases mobility at a high cost per marginal move, suggesting demand-based policies are poorly targeted responses.
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