Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 08:43:02am CEST
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Daily Overview |
| Session | |
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RE 03: Commercial Real Estate Location: LR M2.3 (Floor 2) Session Chair: Sven Damen, University of Antwerp | |
| Presentation 1 | |
ID: 261
Pricing Government Contract Risk Premia: Evidence from the 2025 Federal Lease Terminations 1: Rochester Institute of Technology; 2: Yale School of Management Are government contracts a safe investment? We investigate this question using unanticipated Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cancellations of federal leases as a shock to commercial mortgage default risk. Offices with DOGE-notified leases experience persistent net operating income declines exceeding 15%, with large, negative effects on CMBS prices and rental cash flows tied to nearby private-tenant properties in Washington, D.C. Spillovers are driven by increased vacancy from tenants with high exposure to procurement contracts involving disrupted federal agencies. Simulations of office property value losses from early lease terminations indicate substantial market-wide repricing of government contract risk.
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