Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 08:43:12am CEST
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Daily Overview |
| Session | |
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RE 03: Commercial Real Estate Location: LR M2.3 (Floor 2) Session Chair: Sven Damen, University of Antwerp | |
| Presentation 3 | |
ID: 2175
Remote Work, Financial Frictions, and Office Valuation in Spatial Equilibrium 1: SUNY, University at Buffalo; 2: UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School; 3: UCSD, Rady School of Management We quantify how remote work and tighter credit reshape the long-run spatial equilibrium of U.S. office markets. Across nine metros, we estimate a tract-level office supply elasticity averaging 1.6 via a Bartik-style instrument on Firm Market Access, with wide cross-tract heterogeneity. We embed these estimates in a spatial equilibrium model in which workers choose residence, workplace, and work mode; firms combine on-site labor, remote labor, and office space; and developers face a debt-service-coverage constraint that binds in 89% of New York tracts. Higher remote productivity reallocates office demand toward high-productivity, high-remote-share locations—the observed flight to quality—while financial frictions raise mean Manhattan rents by 4% and contract floorspace by 14%, with sharper effects as financing rates rise. Model-implied long-run Manhattan prices are 31–33% below the 2024 transaction median, and 56% below once a post-WFH risk premium from Office REITs is imposed.
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