Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 08:43:06am CEST
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Daily Overview |
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HF 02: Expectations and Financial Choices Location: LR M1.2 (Floor 1) Session Chair: Steffen Meyer, Aarhus University and Danish Finance Institute (DFI) | |
| Presentation 3 | |
ID: 2107
Beliefs and Actions under Government Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Student Loan Forgiveness 1: University of Chicago; 2: University of Cambridge; 3: Purdue University Government announcements about future actions can influence agents’ economic choices today. How do beliefs about future government policy affect households’ borrowing, spending and debt paydown behavior? We study this question through the lens of student loan forgiveness in the United States, which following electoral promises, was announced in 2022 but never implemented due to judicial rulings. We conduct a customized information provision experiment embedded in a survey eliciting real-time beliefs about future debt forgiveness and repayment, which we link to credit bureau data, employment verification data, and nondurables consumption. Borrowers who are more optimistic about forgiveness reduce payments on student loans and increase non-durable spending, but postpone durable spending while they wait for uncertainty to resolve. Our results provide micro-evidence on the role of policy uncertainty in household decisionmaking, and have implications for government announcements and commitment policy.
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