Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 07:50:37am CEST
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Daily Overview |
| Session | |
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AP 17: Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory Location: LR M2.1 (Floor 2) Session Chair: Pascal Maenhout, INSEAD | |
| Presentation 3 | |
ID: 1836
Ambiguity, Learning, and Portfolio Flows 1: Vienna University of Technology, Austria; 2: University of British Columbia, Canada; 3: Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy We develop an equilibrium model in which agents learn about both the mean and volatility of dividends and differ in ambiguity aversion. Because their conservative portfolios give them higher marginal risk-bearing capacity, ambiguity-averse investors step in as buyers when volatility rises. In contrast to economies populated only by Bayesian agents, volatility learning under ambiguity aversion has first-order effects: uncertainty premia rise with perceived volatility and portfolio flows predict returns. Using the concavity of the option-implied volatility surface as a proxy for ambiguity and index futures trading data, we provide empirical support for the model's predictions.
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