Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 08:53:02am CEST
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Daily Overview |
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HF 04: Household Wealth Location: LR N0.5 (Floor 0) Session Chair: Roine Vestman, Stockholm University | |
| Presentation 2 | |
ID: 1770
What do 12 billion card transactions say about house prices and consumption? 1: Norges Bank, Sweden; 2: University of Oslo; 3: University of Groningen; 4: CEPR We study how changes in housing wealth affect household spending using administrative and granular, de-identified, data on debit card payments and e-invoices for the near population of Norway. We focus on the 2014 oil-price collapse, which created sharpregional variation in house prices. Comparing government workers in oil and non-oil regions, we estimate a three-year marginal propensity to spend (MPX) of about 3.6 cents per dollar. The response is highly concentrated in durables, home improvements, furnishings, and vehicles, and primarily driven by a reduction in the uptake of credit backed by home-equity. The local MPX (L-MPX), the share of the total spending response accruing to locally produced goods and services, stands for roughly 80% of the consumption decline. Additional findings highlight both collateral and wealth effects as key channels linking housing wealth to consumption, and document that household balance-sheet heterogeneity shapes the propagation of housing-wealth shocks.
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