Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 08:44:01am CEST
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Daily Overview |
| Session | |
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MAN: Government Debt Sustainability Location: LR M2.1 (Floor 2) Session Chair: Hanno Lustig, Stanford University | |
| Presentation 3 | |
ID: 146
The Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks on Asset Prices University of Pennsylvania Wharton, United States of America Fiscal policy is less understood in financial markets than monetary policy due to the lack of high-frequency shocks. I construct such shocks by tracking revisions to forward-looking deficit targets throughout the Congressional budget resolution and reconciliation process. The shocks are unpredictable yet move deficit forecasts. A 1% deficit-to-GDP shock raises 10-year yields by 2.3 bps, two-thirds through real rates. Deficit news raises term premiums and lowers Treasury convenience yields. Stock market effects combine discount rate and cash flow channels, with the latter dominating at the ZLB. Growth-sensitive industries respond positively, suggesting a fiscal multiplier that monetary policy offsets when unconstrained.
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