Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 08:51:27am CEST
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Daily Overview |
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AP 16: Heterogeneity in Global Financial Markets Location: LR M2.3 (Floor 2) Session Chair: Riccardo Colacito, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill | |
| Presentation 3 | |
ID: 1277
What Drives Global Corporate Bond Returns? 1: Tsinghua University; 2: Ohio State University What drives expected returns in the global corporate bond market? Using a comprehensive dataset spanning 112 countries and 35 currencies from 1997 to 2021, we show that equity-market information dominates bond-specific and accounting-based characteristics in predicting returns. The most robust predictors are the debt-equity spread and short-term equity momentum, highlighting imperfect integration between equity and credit markets. Building on this insight, we introduce a novel equity-implied mispricing (EIM) factor and find that a parsimonious two-factor model comprising the market factor and EIM outperforms established multifactor specifications. Furthermore, contrary to equity market evidence, global and currency-based factor models substantially outperform local models outside the US. We trace this to the “dollar bias”of international investors and show that currency, not geography, is the primary driver of risk integration in global corporate bonds.
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