Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 07:50:36am CEST
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Daily Overview |
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ECB: Technological Innovation in Finance: Implications for Markets and Central Bank Policy Location: LR M0.1 (Floor 0) Session Chair: Peter Hoffmann, European Central Bank Session Chair: Angela Maddaloni, European Central Bank | |
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ID: 1256
AI Errors 1: Bank for International Settlements; 2: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; 3: Singapore Management University When AIs are tasked with empirical research, how do their outcomes compare to those of humans? Are the distributions similar? We run an experiment where we let AI models repeat an experiment that was run with 162 human teams. Not surprisingly, distributions differ. The deeper question is: Why? We develop an approach that identifies which decisions on the analysis path drive the AI errors. The results show that AI estimates are less dispersed than human estimates. The location of the two distributions as measured by the median, also differs significantly, in particular for more complex tasks. The experiment shows that this location differential is largely due the choice of the statistical model, e.g., identifying a time trend by adding a stationary trend to a model in levels, or by computing relative changes and taking the average.
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