Conference Agenda
Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 15th Sept 2026, 08:57:49am CEST
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Daily Overview |
| Session | |
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DFA: Innovations in Asset Pricing Location: LR M2.1 (Floor 2) Session Chair: Mamdouh Medhat, Dimensional Fund Advisors | |
| Presentation 2 | |
ID: 1088
Financial Prediction Markets: A New Measure of Earnings Expectations 1: London Business School; 2: Yale University; 3: Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) We construct a high-frequency measure of earnings expectations using financial prediction markets. Unlike analyst forecasts, which are updated infrequently and prone to agency conflicts, prediction market prices reflect real-time, stake-backed beliefs. Each contract pays one dollar if realized earnings exceed the analyst consensus; we derive the conditions under which these prices represent subjective probabilities and introduce a methodology to convert them into implied expectations about earnings. Relative to analyst forecasts, we find that market-implied expectations are (i) more accurate; (ii) incrementally informative for earnings announcement returns; (iii) significantly less biased, though they exhibit short-term overreaction in contrast to the underreaction typical of analysts; and (iv) lead in price discovery. We expect this measure to become increasingly informative as the market matures, liquidity deepens, and financial prediction markets become part of mainstream finance.
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