Conference Agenda

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 27th June 2025, 10:31:59pm CEST

 
 
Session Overview
Session
AP 09: Bond Market Demand
Time:
Friday, 22/Aug/2025:
9:00am - 10:30am

Session Chair: Kristy Jansen, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California
Location: 1.000 AMPHI II (Floor 1)


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Presentations
ID: 425

Passive Ownership and Corporate Bond Lending

Amit Goyal1, Yoshio Nozawa2, Yancheng Qiu3

1University of Lausanne, Switzerland; 2University of Toronto; 3University of Sydney

Discussant: Antoine Hubert de Fraisse (HEC PARIS)

Increased ownership of corporate bonds by passive funds reduces the demand to borrow these bonds, thereby easing short-selling constraints in the corporate bond market. This finding contrasts with that in the equity market, where passive ownership increases the demand for equity borrowing. The difference arises because in the bond market, short sellers are mainly dealers rather than speculative customers. Since passive ownership compresses credit spreads, the higher valuation reduces the buying pressure of active investors and consequently reduces the need for dealers to borrow bonds to short in market-making activities. These results highlight a positive externality of passive bond ownership: it facilitates dealers' ability to manage customer-driven buying pressure. Given that bond borrowing primarily supports market-making as a liquidity provision, our results caution against imposing short-selling restrictions on corporate bonds.

EFA2025_425_AP 09_Passive Ownership and Corporate Bond Lending.pdf


ID: 609

Causal Inference for Asset Pricing

Valentin Haddad2,3, Zhiguo He4,3, Paul Huebner1, Peter Kondor5,7, Erik Loualiche6

1Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden; 2UCLA Anderson School of Management; 3NBER; 4Stanford GSB; 5London School of Economics and Political Science; 6University of Minnesota Carlson School of Management; 7CEPR

Discussant: Philippe van der Beck (Harvard Business School)

This paper provides a guide for using causal inference with asset prices and quantities. Our framework revolves around an elementary assumption about portfolio demand: homogeneous substitution conditional on observables. Under this assumption, standard cross-sectional instrumental variables or difference-in-difference regressions identify the relative demand elasticity between assets with the same observables, the difference between own-price and cross-price elasticity. In contrast, identifying aggregate elasticities and substitution along specific characteristics requires joint estimation using multiple sources of exogenous time-series variation. The same principles apply to the estimation of multipliers measuring the price impact of supply or demand shocks. Our assumption maps to familiar restrictions on covariance matrices in classical asset pricing models, encompass demand models such as logit, and accommodate rich substitution patterns even outside of these models. We discuss how to design experiments satisfying this condition and offer diagnostics to validate it.

EFA2025_609_AP 09_Causal Inference for Asset Pricing.pdf


ID: 1556

What Do $40 Trillion of Portfolio Holdings Say about Monetary Policy Transmission?

Kairong Xiao1, Chuck Fang2

1Columbia University, United States of America; 2Drexel University

Discussant: Sebastian Hillenbrand (Harvard Business School)

We use granular portfolio holdings data on major U.S.\ bond investors to examine the transmission of monetary policy. When the Federal Reserve conducts expansionary monetary policy, mutual funds increase their bond purchases due to retail inflows; insurance companies lengthen portfolio durations to hedge liabilities; and banks engage in both activities to accommodate deposit inflows and counteract the shortening of MBS duration. This elevated demand acts as a ``helping hand,'' amplifying the Fed's impact on long-term yields. Most of the amplifying demand is absorbed by new bond issuances, while dealers play a limited role. Using an asset demand system framework, we show that investor demand explains a large share of the excess sensitivity of long-term yields. Meanwhile, bond issuance has become increasingly elastic in recent years, which explains the decline in yield sensitivity at low frequency. Overall, the ``helping hand'' effect of monetary policy is three times as important as changes in risk-free rates in driving corporate bond issuance.

EFA2025_1556_AP 09_What Do $40 Trillion of Portfolio Holdings Say about Monetary Policy Transmission.pdf


 
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