Conference Agenda

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 27th June 2025, 09:37:09pm CEST

 
 
Session Overview
Session
NBIM: Understanding the long-run drivers of asset prices
Time:
Friday, 22/Aug/2025:
2:00pm - 3:30pm

Session Chair: Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen, BI Norwegian Business School
Location: 1.000 AMPHI II (Floor 1)


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Presentations
ID: 638

Nominal rigidity and the inflation risk premium: identification from the cross section of equity returns

Hengjie Ai1, Xinxin Hu1, Xuhui Nick Pan2

1University of Wisconsin-Madison; 2University of Oklahoma, United States of America

Discussant: Preetesh Kantak (Indiana University)

Inflation risk premium is hard to identify in the data, because inflation induced by real shocks and that by nominal shocks carry risk premiums with opposite signs. We show that in the Calvo model of price rigidity, a firm's exposure to inflation risk –induced by monetary policy– is a monotonic function of its profit margin. Using profit margin sorted portfolios around pre-scheduled FOMC announcements, we identify an inflation risk premium from the cross-section of equity returns that supports the Calvo mechanism of price adjustment. We also develop a continuous-time Calvo model to guide our empirical analysis and provide an explanation for the inflation risk premium observed in the data.

EFA2025_638_NBIM_Nominal rigidity and the inflation risk premium.pdf


ID: 1102

Corporate Bond Factors: Replication Failures and a New Framework

Jens Dick-Nielsen, Peter Feldhütter, Lasse Heje Pedersen, Christian Stolborg

Copenhagen Business School, Denmark

Discussant: Giorgio Ottonello (Nova School of Business and Economics)

We demonstrate that the literature on corporate bond factors suffers from replication failures due to the lack of a common error-free dataset, inconsistent error-handling, and inconsistent factor constructions. Going beyond identifying this replication crisis, we create a clean database of corporate bond returns and propose a robust factor construction. Using this framework, we show that most, but not all, factors fail to replicate. Further, we show that a number of equity signals that are new to the corporate bond literature predict bond returns. In summary, most known factors fail, but so does the CAPM for corporate bonds.

EFA2025_1102_NBIM_Corporate Bond Factors.pdf


ID: 1115

Insider Trading With Options

Matteo Vacca

Hanken School of Economics, Finland

Discussant: Patrick Augustin (McGill University)

Trading data from Finland show that rank-and-file employees buy options written on their employers’ stocks. These purchases contain price-relevant information: weekly excess returns on the underlying stocks are over 60 basis points. The informativeness is most pronounced before earnings announcements, extends to firms in the employer’s supply chain, is not driven by industry knowledge, and disappears upon job separation. My results show that some rank-and-file employees actively attempt to exploit their information advantage by trading on the option market, raising important questions about firms’ disclosure policies and the alignment of employee incentives with market efficiency. Consistent with prospect theory, this behavior is more prevalent after employees experience large financial losses.

EFA2025_1115_NBIM_Insider Trading With Options.pdf


 
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