Conference Agenda

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 9th May 2025, 04:05:41pm CEST

 
 
Session Overview
Session
MM 04: Informed trading
Time:
Friday, 23/Aug/2024:
2:00pm - 3:30pm

Session Chair: Albert Menkveld, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Location: Radisson | Rhapsody


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Presentations
ID: 1254

Market Feedback: Who Learns What?

Itay Goldstein1, Jan Schneemeier2, Liyan Yang3

1University of Pennsylvania; 2Michigan State University; 3University of Toronto

Discussant: Ioanid Rosu (HEC Paris)

We analyze information acquisition by a firm and traders when the firm conditions its investment decision on information revealed through stock prices and is exposed to multiple sources of uncertainty. We highlight the delicate strategic interaction between both parties with regard to their incentives to acquire information. For positive NPV projects, there is a fundamental mismatch: traders want to collect the same information as the firm to maximize trading profits, but the firm optimally diversifies its information sources and acquires orthogonal information. For negative NPV projects, the agents' incentives are aligned, but multiple equilibria can lead to discontinuous jumps in firm values and stock prices. We connect the agents' information choices to real efficiency and price efficiency and highlight an inherent discrepancy between these two efficiency measures.

EFA2024_1254_MM 04_Market Feedback.pdf


ID: 1924

Speculation and Liquidity in Stock and Corporate Bond Markets

Paolo Pasquariello, Mirela Sandulescu

University of Michigan, United States of America

Discussant: Vincent Bogousslavsky (Boston College)

Canonical theories of trading assume that financial asset payoffs are linear in their fundamentals. This study argues and documents that the nonlinearity of equity and corporate bond payoffs (by virtue of their issuer’s solvency) has novel, important effects on their price formation. We show that informed risk-neutral speculation trades strategically in a firm’s stocks and bonds on the basis of their relative sensitivity to its value, a function of its perceived probability of default. As that probability changes so does the relative intensity of informed speculation (and adverse selection), yielding differential equilibrium liquidity provision from equity and bond dealers and non-monotonic stock-bond price comovement. We find supportive evidence within a comprehensive sample of intraday U.S. stock and corporate bond trades and prices.

EFA2024_1924_MM 04_Speculation and Liquidity in Stock and Corporate Bond Markets.pdf


ID: 1347

Information Chasing or Adverse Selection: Evidence from Bank CDS Trades

Andrada Bilan1, Steven Ongena2, Cosimo Pancaro3

1Swiss National Bank; 2University of Zurich; 3European Central Bank

Discussant: Patrick Augustin (McGill University)

Does information chasing or adverse selection prevail in the over-the-counter market? To answer this question we use bank trades in the European CDS market to identify privately informed trades. We merge CDS trades reported under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) with syndicated loans from DealScan, and compare the prices on similar CDSs that the same dealer offers to banks and to other investors. We find that banks lending to a corporation purchase CDSs on this corporation at lower prices, and that, after trading with banks, dealers position better their prices when trading with other investors. This supports empirically the theories of information chasing.

EFA2024_1347_MM 04_Information Chasing or Adverse Selection.pdf


 
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