Conference Agenda

Exploiting the unique ``twin'' structure of German government green and conventional securities, we use a dynamic term structure model to estimate a frictionless sovereign risk-free greenium, distinct from the yield spread between the green security and its conventional twin (the green spread). The model purifies the green spread from confounding and idiosyncratic factors unrelated to environmental concerns. While the model-implied greenium exhibits a significant relation with proxies of shocks to climate concerns---and the green spread does not---the green spread correlates with stock market prices and measures of flight-to-quality. We also estimate the greenium term structure and expected green returns.

Using rich hand-collected data, we examine how corporations use carbon offset credits issued by third-party developers to claim emission reductions. Larger firms with higher institutional ownership and net-zero commitments tend to use offsets. However, offsets are used intensively in low-emission industries. After an exogenous ESG rating downgrade triggered by a leading ESG rating agency’s methodology change, low-emission firms retire larger quantities of cheap, low-quality offsets while heavy emitters decarbonize more in-house. Our findings are consistent with a separating equilibrium where firms choose whether to outsource their transition efforts, but also with firms using offsets strategically for certification and ranking benefits.

We develop a bottom-up measure of U.S. banks’ exposures to climate transition risks from the carbon footprint of their syndicated loan portfolios. Transition risk exposures have declined over time, especially since the Paris Agreement. This effect results from a re-balancing of bank loan portfolios, with more lending to low emission borrowers rather than a reduction in lending to high-emission borrowers. Banks with higher transition risk provide more climate-related disclosures in their earnings calls only when probed by analysts, but not voluntarily in their Form 10-Ks. Banks engage in more anti-climate lobbying after their risk exposures increased. Our measure of transition risk correlates with bank-level climate betas, which reflect the sensitivity of bank returns to the returns of a stranded asset index.