Conference Agenda

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 10th May 2025, 12:46:39am CEST

 
 
Session Overview
Session
HF 02: Household debt
Time:
Thursday, 22/Aug/2024:
2:00pm - 3:30pm

Session Chair: Adam Jørring, UMass Amherst
Location: Radisson | Carlton Hall


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Presentations
ID: 881

Household Debt Overhang and Human Capital Investment

Gustavo Manso1, Alejandro Rivera2, Hui Grace Wang3, Han Xia2

1University of California, Berkeley; 2University of Texas at Dallas, United States of America; 3Bentley University

Discussant: James Paron (University of Pennsylvania)

Unlike labor income, human capital is inseparable from individuals and does not completely accrue to creditors, even at default. As a consequence, human capital investment should be more resilient to “debt overhang” than labor supply. We develop a dynamic model displaying this important difference. We find that while both labor supply and human capital investment are hump-shaped in leverage, human capital investment tails off less aggressively as leverage builds up. This is especially the case when human capital depreciation rates are lower. Importantly, because skills acquisition is only valuable when households expect to supply labor in the future, the anticipated greater reduction in labor supply due to debt overhang back-propagates into a reduction in skills acquisition ex ante. Using longitudinal data, we provide empirical support for the model.

EFA2024_881_HF 02_Household Debt Overhang and Human Capital Investment.pdf


ID: 2113

Intergenerational Mobility and Credit

J. Carter Braxton1, Nisha Chikhale1, Kyle Herkenhoff2, Gordon Phillips3

1University of Wisconsin; 2University of Delaware; 3Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College

Discussant: Nelson Camanho (Queen Mary University of London)

We combine the Decennial Census, credit reports, and administrative earnings to create the first panel dataset linking parent's credit access to the labor market outcomes of children in the U.S. We find that a 10\% increase in parent's unused revolving credit during their children's adolescence (13 to 18 years old) is associated with 0.28\% to 0.37\% greater labor earnings of their children during early adulthood (25 to 30 years old). Using these empirical elasticities, we estimate a dynastic, defaultable debt model to examine how the democratization of credit since the 1970s -- modeled as both greater credit limits and more lenient bankruptcy -- affected intergenerational mobility. Surprisingly, we find that the democratization of credit led to less intergenerational mobility and greater inequality. Two offsetting forces underlie this result: (1) greater credit limits raise mobility by facilitating borrowing and investment among low-income households; (2) however, more lenient bankruptcy policy lowers mobility since low-income households dissave, hit their constraints more often, and reduce investments in their children. Quantitatively, the democratization of credit is dominated by more lenient bankruptcy policy and so mobility declines between the 1970s and 2000s.

EFA2024_2113_HF 02_Intergenerational Mobility and Credit.pdf


ID: 1974

Mortgage Design, Repayment Schedules, and Household Borrowing

Claes Backman1, Patrick Moran2, Peter van Santen3

1Aarhus University; 2Federal Reserve Board, CEBI, and IFS; 3University of Groningen

Discussant: Kasper Meisner Nielsen (Copenhagen Business School)

How does the design of debt repayment schedules affect household borrowing? To answer this question, we exploit a Swedish policy reform that eliminated interest-only mortgages for loan-to-value ratios above 50%. We document substantial bunching at the threshold, leading to 5\% less borrowing. Wealthy borrowers drive the results, challenging credit constraints as the primary explanation. We develop a model to evaluate the mechanisms driving household behavior and find that much of the effect comes from households experiencing ongoing flow disutility to amortization payments. Our results indicate that mortgage contracts with low initial payments substantially increase household borrowing and lifetime interest costs.

EFA2024_1974_HF 02_Mortgage Design, Repayment Schedules, and Household Borrowing.pdf


 
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