Conference Agenda

Please note that all times are shown in the time zone of the conference. The current conference time is: 9th May 2025, 04:55:54pm CEST

 
 
Session Overview
Session
MM 01: Big data, humans and algorithms
Time:
Thursday, 22/Aug/2024:
9:00am - 10:30am

Session Chair: Sophie Moinas, Toulouse School of Economics
Location: Radisson | Carlton Hall


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Presentations
ID: 539

Computational Reproducibility in Finance: Evidence from 1,000 Tests

Christophe Perignon1, Olivier Akmansoy1, Christophe Hurlin2, Anna Dreber3,4, Felix Holzmeister4, Jurgen Huber4, Magnus Johannesson3, Michael Kirchler4, Albert Menkveld5,6, Michael Razen4, Utz Weitzel5,6,7

1HEC Paris, France; 2University of Orléans, France; 3Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden; 4University of Innsbruck, Austria; 5Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands; 6Tinbergen Institute, Netherlands; 7Radboud University, Netherlands

Discussant: Gaetan Bakalli (EM Lyon)

We analyze the computational reproducibility of more than 1,000 empirical answers to six research questions in finance provided by 168 international research teams. Running the original researchers’ code on the same raw data regenerates exactly the same results only 52\% of the time. Reproducibility is higher for researchers with better coding skills and for those exerting more effort. It is lower for more technical research questions, more complex code, and for results lying in the tails of the results distribution. Neither researcher seniority, nor peer-review ratings appear to be related to the level of reproducibility. Moreover, researchers exhibit strong overconfidence when assessing the reproducibility of their own research. We provide guidelines for finance researchers and discuss several implementable reproducibility policies for academic journals.

EFA2024_539_MM 01_Computational Reproducibility in Finance.pdf


ID: 635

AI Powered Trading, Algorithimic Collusion and Price Efficiency

Winston Dou1, Itay Goldstein1, Yan Ji2

1University of Pennsylvania; 2HKUST, Hong Kong

Discussant: Jose Penalva (Universidad Carlos III)

The integration of algorithmic trading and reinforcement learning, known as AI-powered trading, has significantly impacted capital markets. This study utilizes a model of imperfect competition among informed speculators with asymmetric information to explore the implications of AI-powered trading strategies on speculators' market power, information rents, price informativeness, market liquidity, and mispricing. Our results demonstrate that informed AI speculators, even though they are ``unaware'' of collusion, can autonomously learn to employ collusive trading strategies. These collusive strategies allow them to achieve supra-competitive trading profits by strategically under-reacting to information, even without any form of agreement or communication, let alone interactions that might violate traditional antitrust regulations. Algorithmic collusion emerges from two distinct mechanisms. The first mechanism is through the adoption of price-trigger strategies (``artificial intelligence''), while the second stems from homogenized learning biases (``artificial stupidity''). The former mechanism is evident only in scenarios with limited price efficiency and noise trading risk. In contrast, the latter persists even under conditions of high price efficiency or large noise trading risk. As a result, in a market with prevalent AI-powered trading, both price informativeness and market liquidity can suffer, reflecting the influence of both artificial intelligence and stupidity.

EFA2024_635_MM 01_AI Powered Trading, Algorithimic Collusion and Price Efficiency.pdf


ID: 1861

Traces of Humanity: Liquidity and Human Behavior in the Machine Age

Mark Kamstra2, Lisa Kramer1, Andriy Shkilko3

1University of Toronto, Canada; 2York University; 3Wilfrid Laurier University

Discussant: Bidisha Chakrabarty (Saint Louis University)

Machines dominate the trading process in modern markets, and it may be tempting to conclude that human behavior no longer affects liquidity generation and consumption. Our research challenges this view. Liquidity costs follow strong behavioral patterns, with costs highest in early winter and lowest in late spring, a difference driven by changes in risk aversion and impatience that correlate with seasonal changes in daylight exposure. As informed traders become more impatient from late summer to early winter, they generate more adverse selection, while liquidity providers demand greater compensation as they become more risk-averse. Together these patterns drive liquidity costs up and down annually.

EFA2024_1861_MM 01_Traces of Humanity.pdf


 
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