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Session Overview
Session
02 SES 13 D: Research agendas and forecasting models
Time:
Thursday, 24/Aug/2023:
5:15pm - 6:45pm

Session Chair: Simon McGrath
Location: Boyd Orr, Lecture Theatre 1 [Floor 2]

Capacity: 306 persons

Paper Session

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Presentations
02. Vocational Education and Training (VETNET)
Paper

A Regional Forecasting Tool to Estimate the Horizontal Mismatch between VET Supply and Labour Market Demand 2022 - 2030

Mikel Albizu Echevarria1, Juan Pablo Gamboa Navarro1, Mónica Moso-Diez2, Antonio Mondaca Soto2

1Orkestra BIC, Spain; 2CaixaBank Dualiza, Spain

Presenting Author: Albizu Echevarria, Mikel

The demand for workers in the labour market is changing as a result of the integration of different megatrends: digital, green and demographic (Opik et al., 2018). There is therefore a particular need to develop systems for forecasting labour demand. Matching skills supply and demand is crucial for the development of education, economic development and inclusion policies.

To this end, Cedefop has developed a system that provides comprehensive estimates of labour market trends up to 2030 in all EU Member States. However, it has two limitations. First, its estimates are not directly linked to the system of skills provision, including Initial Vocational Education and Training (IVET). IVET is of particular interest because of its strategic importance for industrial development and employment (Spöttl & Windelband, 2021). This importance is growing in some countries (Germany, Denmark, Austria) with a high share of the labour force with post-secondary vocational education (Hoeckel & Schwartz, 2010).

Similarly, the data it provides is at the national level. In this respect, the regional level offers a particularly appropriate scenario for analysing the dynamics generated between human capital and development (Canal Dominguez, 2021; Sevinc et al., 2020). Some authors have also highlighted the relevance of technical profiles linked to Vocational Education and Training studies (ILO, 2012) as conducive to regional development (Navarro, 2014; (Retegi & Navarro, 2018; Spöttl & Windelband, 2021). Finally, within the same country, at the regional level, there may be significant differences between VET systems, both in terms of both supply and demand for VET workers (Moso-Diez et al., 2022).

For all the above reasons, the main contribution of the article is to present a new methodology for estimating the degree of horizontal mismatch of graduates with VET studies per Spanish region between 2020 and 2030, by economic sector (NACE code letter). This type of mismatch, known as ‘horizontal mismatch’ (Robst, 2007), occurs when the job held by a worker is not related to his or her field of study. This type of discrepancy is also known as ‘field-of-study mismatch’. This allows us to check whether VET fields of knowledge are properly aligned with labour market demand at regional level...

Among other things, the proper matching of supply and demand in the labour market can increase the productivity of firms because, when individuals are well matched to their occupations, the knowledge and skills that are acquired through education are optimally used in the labour market (Somers et al., 2019). This model is built based on Cedefop estimates and the Spanish Labour Force Survey, two accessible sources that would allow it to be replicated and improved for the rest of the regions in all EU-27 countries.


Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used
The forecasting model is built as follows:
1. Estimation of the net change of employment between 2020-2030 in the Spanish regions
First, the Spanish sectoral inter-annual rate of change in employment 2020-2030 is calculated using the Cedefop Skills Forecast. These estimates are then applied to the 2020 Labour Force Survey (LFS) results for the Spanish regions by economic activity (NACE code letters).
2. Estimation of job vacancies (expansion/contraction and replacement)
The job opportunities created each year in a given labour market are the result of two main sources.
• On the one hand, they result from economic expansion or contraction
• And, on the other hand, from the replacement of existing workers who leave the labour market (due to retirement, disability, etc.). In order to obtain the average replacement, the percentage of persons replaced in the period 2018-2030 by sector is applied to the number of employed persons reported by the LFS 2018. The result is divided by 12 (the total number of years in the period 2018-2030). This gives the annual average number of replacement job opportunities by sector in the Spanish labour market over the period 2018-2030.
• Finally, the replacement job opportunities are added to the expansion/contraction opportunities and the result can be considered as the total job opportunities.
3. Allocation of vacancies to IVET
The allocation is done by calculating the share of the labour force with IVET from 2014 to 2020. On the basis of this trend, the share of the workforce with IVET is estimated for the period 2020-2030.
4. Connection between each economic sector to the IVET knowledge fields
Each economic sector can be linked to IVET fields of knowledge. For this purpose, the National Statistics Institute (INE) 2020 Survey on the Transition from Vocational Training to Labour Market Insertion (ETEFIL) is used.
5. Estimation of the IVET job opportunities by field of knowledge
To estimate the number of IVET job openings corresponding to each field of knowledge, the percentage of IVET graduates per field of knowledge by sector is applied to each of the IVET job openings estimated for each sector.
6. Estimation of horizontal mismatch
To calculate the horizontal mismatch, for each year between 2021 and 2030, the number of sectoral IVET job openings per field of knowledge is crossed with the number of graduates linked to these fields of knowledge in 2020.

Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings
-To create a predictive model that allows to know the demand of graduates with IVET studies by economic sectors at regional level in Spain for the period 2020-2030.
-To make an initial calculation to determine whether the supply of IVET is adjusted, in terms of fields of study, to the demand of the labour market (horizontal mismatch).
-To develop a forecasting model that can be adapted to the reality of other countries and regions within the EU-27.

References
Canal Dominguez, J. F. (2021). Higher education, regional growth and cohesion: insights from the Spanish case. Regional Studies, 10.1080/00343404.2021.1901870

Hoeckel, K., & Schwartz, R. (2010). Learning for jobs OECD reviews of vocational education and training. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2, 666.

Moso-Diez, M., Mondaca-Soto, A., Gamboa, J. P., & Albizu-Echevarría, M. (2022). A Quantitative Cross-Regional Analysis of the Spanish VET Systems From a Systemic Approach: From a Regional Comparative VET Research Perspective. International Journal for Research in Vocational Education and Training, 9(1), 120-145. 10.13152/IJRVET.9.1.6

Navarro M. (2014) El papel de los centros de formación profesional en los sistemas de innovación regionales y locales. La experiencia del País Vasco. (Cuaderno de Orkestra No. 2014/7), Bilbao: Orkestra-Instituto Vasco de Competitividad (in Spanish).

Opik, R., Kirt, T., & Liiv, I. (2018). Megatrend and Intervention Impact Analyzer for Jobs: A Visualization Method for Labor Market Intelligence. Journal of Official Statistics, 34(4), 961-979. 10.2478/jos-2018-0047

Retegi, J., & Navarro, M. (2018). Los centros de Formación Profesional ante los retos de las RIS3. El caso de Navarra. (pp. 57)

Sevinc, D., Green, A., Bryson, J. R., Collinson, S., Riley, R., & Adderley, S. (2020). Ensuring skills are available in the right locations: are we there yet? A regional analysis of qualification gaps. Regional Studies, 54(8), 1149-1159. 10.1080/00343404.2020.1740190

Somers M.A., Cabus S.J., Groot W., Maassen van den Brink H. (2019) Horizontal mismatch between employment and field of education: Evidence from a systematic literature review. Journal of Economic Surveys 33(2), 567–603. https://doi.org/10.1111/ joes.12271

Spöttl, G., & Windelband, L. (2021). The 4th industrial revolution – its impact on vocational skills. Journal of Education and Work, 34(1), 29-52. 10.1080/13639080.2020.1858230

ILO (2012) International Standard Classification of Occupations. Structure, group definitions and correspondence tables. ISCO-08 (vol. I), Geneva: International Labour Office.stylefix

Robst J. (2007) Education and job match: The relatedness of college major and work. Economics of Education Review, 26(4), 397–407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2006.08.003


02. Vocational Education and Training (VETNET)
Paper

Transitioning Vocational Education and Training: towards a new research agenda

Simon McGrath1, Presha Ramsarup2, Volker Wedekind3, Heila Lotz-Sisitka4, David Monk5, Jo-Anna Russon3

1University of Glasgow, Scotland; 2University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa; 3University of Nottingham, England; 4Rhodes University, South Africa; 5Gulu University, Uganda

Presenting Author: McGrath, Simon

The current VET policy and practice orthodoxy is not working despite the efforts of educators and learners. The futures for which VET is intended to prepare people are ever more precarious at the individual, societal and planetary levels. While better futures are possible, VET is poorly positioned to respond to the new skilling needs these will require.

Therefore, we ask 1) what a VET system would look like that could play a supportive role in just transitioning and 2) what implications this question has for a future-oriented research agenda for VET.

Our research foregrounds the skills ecosystems approach, drawing most from Spours and his four key elements: collaborative horizontalities, facilitating verticalities, mediation through common mission and ecosystem leadership, and ecological time.

In expanding the approach to African contexts, we find the basic analytical tools hold. Nonetheless, we extend the approach significantly.

We argue for a strong ontological grounding in constructing such ecosystems and including some of what has historically been excluded from VET thinking and praxis (e.g., a wider notion of work). We offer three main dimensions.

1. Our more explicit engagement with political ecology points to further development of an account of VET’s purpose distinct from the productivist–human capital origins that permeates VET thinking. We make an axiological and ontological move by arguing VET’s purpose should encompass furthering collective human flourishing and integral human development.

2. We make the realtional aspect more explicit through application of notions of relational agency and relational capability.

3. We draw on critical realism to underpin how we see the interaction of vertical and horizontal. By drawing on Bhaskar’s laminated approach, we can address the question of how levels interact.

Whilst social ecosystems thinking proved useful, it did not provide sufficient conceptual tools to drive our work. Rather, it provided the middle layer of our conceptual approach. At a more generalised level, we located our expansion of the approach in critical realism.

In our empirical work, we adopted a further set of lenses.

1. We addressed informality, reflecting the majority reality of global economic life. The settings we researched included large numbers of actors, simultaneously engaged in enterprise activities and living lives as humans; always operating in complex relational webs. In such settings, anchor institutions are hard to find. Rather, we saw network catalysts, providing frameworks for fractal processes of deepening relationality. We explored the dynamism of young people’s navigational capabilities for finding new paths through living, working and learning. Their use of relationships and social media were apparent.

2. We considered the part played by vocational teachers, taking an expansive view of who counted as such. We see tthem as central to all ecosystem aspects, as interpreters of curriculum, scaffolders of learning and connectors to work. We explore the importance teachers place on building horizontal relationships within and across institutions and community organisations.

3. We examined how the ecosystem approach could inform the education–to–work transitions debate. In agreeing with those who problematise such transitions and point to nonlinear and blocked transitions, and the role of intersectional inequality therein, we considered questions of how the vertical and horizontal, and mediation between them, contribute to facilitating transitions. Indeed, in more formal or hybrid labour market contexts, anchor organisations remain crucial. Here, leadership was being provided by diverse learning institutions including VET institutions. How localised colearning networks can be support became an important focus.

4. We considered universities' roles in supporting skills ecosystems and localised colearning networks. Through our experience as actors in skills ecosytems, we explore universities' potential to make verticalities more facilitating through the particular advantages that they have in convening other actors.


Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used
The paper reflects on a 3 year, 2 country study, conducted by 4 partner universities (the author affiliation list reflects this plus the subsequent move of the PI to another university).
We used a mixed method approach, including face-to-face and online interviews and focus groups (with learners and staff in vocational institutions, employers in the formal and informal sectors, civil society actors and youth); participatory action research with community groups and TVET college staff; analysis of social media interactions in learning networks; surveys of lecturers; analysis of policy texts; and critical reflections on team members’ work as policy and practice actors.
We organised the project around four case studies, designed to offer diverse contexts broadly reflecting different VET imperatives. We looked across both rural-urban and formal-informal divides. The Durban-KZN North Coast region  is a large urban and industrial conurbation, selected because the South African state had identified it as a strategic gateway through its port and airport, and had sought to build its capacity, including a skills dimension. Alice is a small town in rural, former homeland, Eastern Cape, South Africa. We selected it due to our prior involvement in a support programme for small-scale agriculture through a learning network centred on water conservation. The Bunyoro-Kitara Kingdom of Western Uganda, centred on Hoima, was chosen as the site of major ongoing development activity linked to the opening of a new oilfield. As well as national investment, the area has seen donor support to skills development from the World Bank and a consortium of bilateral agencies. Finally, the city of Gulu in Northern Uganda, formerly the centre of international humanitarian efforts in the wake of the infamous Lord's Resistance Army uprising was selected as being in the process of transitioning to a new developmental model, whilst being remote from much formal economic activity in East Africa. Here we focused on the intersections between the formal and informal economy, and the experiences of Gulu University in mediating relationships between them.

Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings
Though rooted in African contexts, our approach explicitly talks back to European traditions of VET research and its arguments have wider salience globally. They point to the need to see VET expansively, starting from where individuals and communities are engaged in vocational learning of whatever kind, rather on the dominant VET modalities of the extant research literature; considering their myriad purposes in engaging in such learning for livelihoods and lives, and not just skills for formal employment; and focusing on the need to sustain individuals, communities and the planet, and not just produce more. They also highlight the centrality of relationality, of multiscalarity, and of an ecosystem perspective, pointing towards rich new theoretical possibilities for VET research globally.
References
Allais, S., 2020. Skills for industrialisation in sub-Saharan African countries: why is systemic reform of technical and vocational systems so persistently unsuccessful? Journal of Vocational Education & Training 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/13636820.2020.1782455
Anderson, D., 2008. Productivism, vocational and professional education, and the ecological question. Vocations and Learning 1 (1): 105-129.
McGrath, S. Powell, L., Alla-Mensah, J., Hilal, R. and Suart, R., 2020b. New VET theories for new times: the critical capabilities approach to vocational education and training and its potential for theorising a transformed and transformational VET. Journal of Vocational Education and Training, https://doi.org/10.1080/13636820.2020.1786440.
McGrath, S., Ramsarup, P., Zeelen, J., Wedekind, V., Allais, S., Lotz-Sisitka, H., Monk, D., Openjuru, G., Russon, J.-A., 2020a. Vocational education and training for African development: a literature review. Journal of Vocational Education & Training 72, 465–487.
Powell, L. and McGrath, S., 2019. Skills for Human Development. Routledge, Abingdon.
Rosenberg, E., Ramsarup, P. and Lotz-Sisitka, H. (Eds.), 2020. Green Skills Research in South Africa. Routledge, Abingdon.
Spours, K., 2021. Building social ecosystem theory. https://www.kenspours.com/elite-and-inclusive-ecosystems.
VET Africa 4.0 Collective, 2022. Transitioning Vocational Education and Training. Bristol University Press, Bristol.
Wedekind, V., Russon, J., Ramsarup, P., Monk, D., Metelerkamp, L., McGrath, S., 2021. Conceptualising regional skills ecosystems: Reflections on four African cases. International Journal of Training and Development 25, 347–362.


02. Vocational Education and Training (VETNET)
Paper

TVET Research in Costa Rica - Status, Challenges and Needs

Irina Rommel, Enrique Angles

Osnabrück University, Germany

Presenting Author: Rommel, Irina; Angles, Enrique

Costa Rica is recognized as one of the Latin American countries that invests the most in education. According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017, Costa Rica's education system ranks 35th in the world, one of the highest in Latin America. However, most students in Costa Rica leave school with a weak foundation for work, amid concerns about low productivity and skills shortages (OECD, 2016), compounded by the fact that Costa Rica is the OECD country with the highest unemployment rate (34.2%) among 15-24 year-olds (ILO, 2022). To resume economic growth, Costa Rica needs a labour force with the competencies and skills demanded by the labour market and a TVET system that meets this need. One of the main institutions active in technical and vocational education and training (TVET) in Costa Rica is the Ministry of Public Education (Ministerio de Educación Pública - MEP) and the National Institute for Apprenticeships (Instituto Nacional de Aprendizaje – INA) (Rommel & Vargas Méndez, 2022). However, employers argue that there are insufficient graduates in technical specialties of increasing labour market demand. Furthermore, there is a lack in the supply of skilled TVET teachers in order to strength the quality of TVET. For example, not all teachers of TVET have vocational pedagogical and subject didactic competencies (Álvarez-Galván, 2015). This has brought the demand for more research on TVET to the center in Costa Rica. At the same time, it can be observed that, despite the growing attention from the political and economic side, a development of theoretical and methodological approaches on TVET and its scientifical knowledge does not take place. Although TVET is considered as an important and valuable alternative for the insertion of the young population in the labor market with a growing importance for the society, the relevance of TVET research is not yet that present so that research efforts have remained in the background (Alvarado Calderón & Mora Hernández, 2020). Lascarez & Baumann (2018) state that TVET research in Costa Rica is still in its infancy and that there is still no university chair conducting TVET research.

In Germany, for example, TVET is supported by the academic sub-discipline of TVET research and is characterized by chairs, courses of study in TVET teacher qualification, its own research community, academic journals and appropriate support for young researchers. Thus, although the Costa Rican discourse on TVET has typical elements such as the currently formulated need for TVET research and existing courses of study in TVET teacher education, as well as some academic scientific research efforts, this has not yet led to the promotion or institutionalization of a specific TVET-related scientific focus. This paper deals with the status and needs of TVET research in Costa Rica within the framework of the CoRiVET - Costa Rican Vocational Education and Training Project, funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research. The project aims to actualize the current curriculum on teacher qualification for TVET at the National Technical University (UTN) and to further institutionalized TVET research. In order to fulfil this last objective, a diagnosis of the current state of research on TVET will be carried out, which will provide updated information to detect in which sub-themes of TVET it is necessary to make greater research efforts in the future. In this context CoRiVET deals with the question: What is the status of TVET research in Costa Rica and which are the associated research needs for TVET?


Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used
In order to answer the research question a systematic review is carried out, supported by demi-standardized expert interviews with expert who are directly or indirectly involved in TVET and TVET research.
The systematic review of the literature on TVET research will be carried out by using the methodology proposed by Gessler and Siemer (2020), for which both formal scientific publications and "grey literature" (strategy documents, project reports, evaluations, etc.) are analyzed. All documents related to TVET in Costa Rica (published worldwide) are considered. The search for documents on TVET research will be conducted in the 3 languages (Spanish, English and German). Search terms for documents on TVET research in the 3 languages are, among others: technical education, vocational training, technical education research, vocational training research, dual training, combined with the name of Costa Rica, and Central America. Different databases will be used in the process of searching for publications on TVET research. The analysis procedure will be inspired by the methods of thematic analysis (Mayring, 2008). In addition, semi-standardized expert interviews will be conducted in order to identify concrete needs for the promotion of TVET research in Costa Rica. Therefore, the aim of the interviews is to identify existing resources and competences in TVET research as well as characterize the status, challenges, and opportunities. A strategy for disseminating the results of the present study will be considered in order to make them known to decision-makers in Costa Rica and to the scientific community in the TVET sector in Costa Rica.  

Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings
It can be assumed that the current status of TVET research and previous efforts and activities of TVET research in Costa Rica can be regarded as low. There is no, however, systematized overview of existing research and research needs in TVET that could provide an up-to-date assessment of specific research foci, topics, methodological approaches, etc. In other words, there is no institutionalized and systematized TVET research, which can be referred to. In this respect, it can be argued that the systematic review, combined with the expert interviews will enable an overview of precisely these things in order to derive adapted measures in the CoRiVET project and to promote the second objective of strengthening TVET research. At the same time, the systematization of the status quo in TVET research and the results of the interviews enable the identification of relevant actors with their related needs, characteristics and possibilities to promote TVET research activities.
So, the expected results are, on the one hand, a systematization of existing research activities, a characterization of current needs to promote TVET research regarding actors, institutions etc.  and, in particular, the identification of research themes in and for the Costa Rican TVET system. It can be assumed that topics like pedagogical qualification of teachers for TVET, the professionalization processes of teachers, labor market needs, among others, will be identified as decisive research areas.  

References
Álvarez-Galván, J. (2015), A Skills beyond School Review of Costa Rica, OECD Reviews of Vocational Education and Training, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264233256-en.

Gessler, M., & Siemer, C. (2020). Umbrella review: Methodological review of reviews published in peer-reviewed journals with a substantial focus on vocational education and training research. International Journal for Research in Vocational Education and Training, 7(1), 91–125. https://doi. org/10.13152/IJRVET.7.1.5

Láscarez, Smith, D. & Baumann, A.-F. (2020). Costa Rica: Berufsbildung im Wandel, in: Baumann, A.F.; Frommberger, D.; Gessler, M. et al. Internationale Berufsbildungsforschung. Berufliche Bildung in Lateinamerika und Subsahara-Afrika. Entwicklungsstand und Herausforderungen dualer Strukturansätze. (pp. 73-112) Springer SV.

OECD (2016). Economic Surveys Costa Rica. https://www.oecd.org/costarica/Costa-Rica-2016-overview.pdf
Pätzold, G. & Wahle, M. (2013). Berufsbildungsforschung: Selbstverständnis einer Disziplin im historischen Rückblick. BWP, 42(3), 28-31

Rommel, I. & Vargas Méndez, M. (2022). Necesidades de cualificación docente de la EFTP costarricense: primeros resultados del Proyecto CoRiVET. In Revista Innovaciones Educativas, 24 (27), 24-40.

World Economic Forum. (2016). The Global Competitiveness Report 2016–2017. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-competitiveness-report-2016-2017-1/?DAG=3&gclid=CjwKCAiAleOeBhBdEiwAfgmXf7QGvli9GRme14F80zQv5Lz379qFXZ3QaZz3LozfLGizQRPuExQlAhoCFlMQAvD_BwE


 
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